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Latinos represent the fastest-growing population in the United States. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there were 26.9 million Latino Americans living in the U.S. in 1995, and Latinos are expected to number over 31 million in 2000. In addition, the U.S. Census Bureau projects that by 2050, Latinos will reach 25% of the total U.S. population (Table 1). These projections are dependent upon natural growth (births minus deaths) and immigration factors. These factors may be modified by political and economic circumstances in Latin American countries, which may increase the number of Latinos in the U.S. beyond those projected.
| Year | 1995 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number | 26,936 | 31,366 | 41,139 | 52,652 | 80,164 | 96,508 |
| Percentage | 10.2 | 11.4 | 13.8 | 16.3 | 21.7 | 24.5 |
| * Middle series projections | ||||||
| Source: Current Population Reports P25-1130, U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1996 | ||||||
By 2030, Latino youth (ages 5 to 17) are projected to grow to almost 15 million or nearly 25% of the total school population. Furthermore, Latino 18- to 24-year-olds, part of the age group from which business, industry and the military traditionally draw their workforce, will increase rapidly, growing from 13.0% of the population in 1995 to 28.6% in 2050 (Table 2).
| Year | Group | Elementary School (5-13) |
High School (14-17) |
Total School Age (5-17) |
Postsecondary School (18-24) |
Total (5-24) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| 1995 | Hispanic
Total U.S. |
4,605
34,378 |
13.4 | 1,856
14,773 |
12.6 | 6,461
49,151 |
13.1 | 3,245
24,926 |
13.0 | 9,706
74,077 |
13.1 |
| 2000 | Hispanic
Total U.S. |
5,651
36,043 |
15.7 | 2,179
15,752 |
13.8 | 7,830
51,795 |
15.1 | 3,679
26,258 |
14.0 | 11,509
78,053 |
14.7 |
| 2010 | Hispanic
Total U.S. |
6,654
35,605 |
18.7 | 3,007
16,894 |
17.8 | 9,661
52,499 |
18.4 | 5,101
30,138 |
16.9 | 14,762
82,637 |
17.9 |
| 2030 | Hispanic
Total U.S. |
10,362
41,589 |
24.9 | 4,419
18,788 |
23.5 | 14,781
60,377 |
24.5 | 7,330
31,826 |
23.0 | 22,111
92,203 |
24.0 |
| 2050 | Hispanic
Total U.S. |
14,704
47,804 |
30.8 | 6,202
21,207 |
29.2 | 20,906
69,011 |
30.3 | 10,394
36,333 |
28.6 | 31,300
105,344 |
29.7 |
| * Middle series projections | |||||||||||
| Source: Current population reports P25-1130 U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1996 | |||||||||||
For the year 1995, the U.S. Department of Education records that Latino youth made up the largest ethnic minority in the states of Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico and Texas (Table 3). This trend is being replicated in many large urban areas throughout the country and most particularly in cities located in southwestern states.
| State | Latino | African American | Asian | White |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 30.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 56.9 |
| California | 38.7 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 40.4 |
| Colorado | 18.4 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 72.5 |
| New Mexico | 46.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 39.5 |
| Texas | 36.7 | 14.3 | 2.3 | 46.4 |
| Source: Digest of Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, 1997 | ||||
Latino youth are becoming the largest ethnic/racial student group in American schools, however, they continue to have the lowest non-completion rate from high schools. According to the National Center on Educational Statistics, 11.1% of all 16- to 24-year-olds in 1996 had dropped out of school, defined as not enrolled in school and not having earned a high school diploma. Furthermore, while Latinos only represent 13.8% of all 16- to 24-year-olds, their dropout rate stands at 37.6% of all school dropouts (Table 4).
| Group | Population | Dropouts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | |
| Latino | 4,481 | 13.8 | 1,315 | 37.6 |
| White | 21,527 | 66.3 | 1,569 | 44.8 |
| Black | 4,745 | 14.6 | 615 | 17.6 |
| Source: NCES 98-250 Dropout Rates in the United States, 1997, U.S. Department of Education | ||||
Further analysis reveals that the dropout rate for Latinos has not improved significantly. The Latino high school dropout rate declined by an average of nearly 3% per year between 1990 to 1996 (from 32.4% to 29.4%), faster than the 1.7 percent average annual decline in the dropout rate for Whites. Nevertheless, by 1996, the dropout rate for Latinos was still more than double the rate for African Americans and about four times the rate for Whites, who record only 8% of their group leaving school without graduating (Table 5). A sizeable gap in dropout rates also remains between Latino and African American youth.
| Group | 1990 | 1992 | 1994 | 1996 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latino | 32.4 | 29.4 | 30.0 | 29.4 |
| African American | 13.2 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 13.0 |
| White | 9.0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.3 |
| All | 12.1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 11.1 |
| Source: Digest of Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education, 1997 | ||||
High dropout rates among Latino school-age youth are likely to continue unless there is some form of educational intervention. If we project future dropout rates based on changes recorded between 1990 and 1996, it would take approximately 36 more years for Latinos to reach the same levels as Whites.
These statistics show that Latinos represent a growing population beset with a large segment of its youth that are dropping out of secondary school and thus, are unable to qualify for the growing number of positions that require postsecondary education. Studies suggest that these statistics can be reversed through earlier intervention in the child development process in the home and in the early education years.
Education researchers view parental involvement as the single most critical element in education achievement and success. Latino parents, like many other parents in American society, have a strong belief in education as a medium for improving their childrens life chances. So while both parents are committed to keeping their children in school, Latino fathers, many times due to economic factors, have not been as engaged as the Latino mothers in the rearing of their children. As a consequence, many Latino children and youth do not benefit from having both parents actively engaged in all aspects of early childhood education occurring in kindergarten through high school.
Promoting more active involvement in school and non-school learning by fathers is one strategy to improve overall educational performance by Latino children and youth. There are programs in Latino communities already hard at work to increase such involvement. These programs provide a variety of ways to connect with fathers through parenting programs, employment programs, involvement in early childhood and other educational settings, and activities focused on increasing child and family literacy. Learning from the experts in communities and sharing experiences across geographic, economic, and cultural boundaries has the potential to provide powerful insights into how Latino fathers can best be engaged in their childrens learning. The hope is that this dialogue will lead to more involvement by Latino fathers in the education of their children and youth as well as greater educational success by Latino children, youth, and families.
1. This section of the report was prepared by Carmen Seleme-McDermott of the Hispanic Association of Colleges and Universities
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Last updated: 03/12/02